Water, water every where. Well, at least not in China.

I went to a lecture this morning called Asia’s Next Challenge: Securing the Region’s Water Future at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. After waking up late and trying to navigate the International Trade Center complex at 1300 Penn (a hope skip and a jump from where we viewed the Inaugural Parade) I walked in the door a couple minutes late. But thought I would share my notes from the lecture because it was very interesting, particularly if you are concerned about the potential environmental problems facing China in the future.

The two speakers at this forum were visiting fellow at Brookings Institute in Doha, Qatar Dr. Saleem Ali and the Director of the Asian Social Issues Program at the Asia Society Suzanne DiMaggio. Both speakers were members of the leadership group for a new report, Asia’s Next Challenge: Securing the Region’s Water Future (pdf)from the Asia Society, which was the focus of the lecture. The session was moderated by the Director of the China Environmental Forum at the Woodrow Wilson Center Jennifer Turner who was a contributing author to the report, writing a sidebar entitled Water Conflicts Catalyzing China and spoke on many of the issues in the report relevant to China.

Although the lecture was about Asia as a whole, in the following summation I have focused primarily on the relevant aspects to China. The premise of the session and the report was that the majority of the water problems in Asia are the result not of water shortage, but of mismanagement and poor water governance. Additionally water problems in Asia should be considered part of a nation’s security dimension, but warned that effort should be taken so that water itself should not be “securitized.” Solutions to these problems require high-level political will and significant levels of investment with regional communication key.

The first portion of the lecture focused on the transboundary nature of security concerns in Asia. Water in recent years has become a “conduit for cooperation.” China is a prime example. On the Songhua River flowing into the China (43%)-Russian (48%) shared Amur-Heilong basin, China and Russia are working together to developing hydropower stations. The Yalu River is the shared boundary between China-North Korea and North Korea-Russia with the Tumen River basin laying at the intersection of all three nations. Kazakhstan and China have 23 transborder rivers with the 2002 established Joint Committee on Transboundary Rivers overseeing their joint usage. Finally, the Mekong River with China as the upstream state flows through five of its Southern neighbors, here China participates in annual meetings of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) as a “dialogue partner,” though not a member. In the case of the Mekong, China’s dam building on the upper reaches, have changed flow and sediment patterns, and plans to expand damn building have infuriated members of the MRC.

The second portion addressed that the conflict over water is not just an intra-country issue, but an inter-country problem. Turner pointed out that most of the focus on governance of water in China is supply-side. Thus, many demand side problems continue to not be addressed. Continuing conflict in Xinjiang between the Uyghur minority and the Han Chinese may be intensified in the future if urbanization and industry deplete the already scarce water supplies, particularly if it is perceived that the Han receive favorable treatment of water allocation. Demographic changes such as growing populations in China and India, as well as the higher-consumption lifestyles that economic growth brings put further strain on water resources. Growing industry is increasing water demand, while discharge and rampant waste dumping is decreasing the quality of water. It was interesting to note in a discussion about polluter pays or user-pay, Dr. Ali noted that without the efforts of MNCs such as Nike local legislation enacting tougher environmental standards would not have occurred, these MNCs often push local officials to enforce the laws on their domestic competitors. The second part is a new prospective that I did not address, but still supports my term paper for this course.

Access to useable water is one of China’s largest problems. 700 million people in China lack access to clean drinking water. In the north, land degradation and desertification are the main problems. Freshwater per capita in Northern China is only ¹/₁₀ of the world average. In the southwest, much ground water sinks into the limestone where it is inaccessible to the general population. Municipal wastewater and agricultural runoff are the worst contaminators of China’s rivers, with 40% of waters at grade V or V+, unsuitable for drink, agriculture, or industry. The 2,800 chemical factories on Lake Tai, between Jiangsu and Zhejiang, have contaminated water to the point that 2 million people have lost access to drinking water. Contaminated water drainage into the ocean have caused the coastal waters to become dead.

Finally there was discussion about the impact of climate change on hydrology, particularly glacier melt and sea level rise. The Himalayan glaciers are the source of much water in Asia. At current rates it is expected that in 30 years the rivers feeding off these glaciers would become seasonal rivers with flow will be dramatically reduced in the dry season. Glacier coverage in China alone is expected to decrease 27% by 2050. But glacier melt may increase the potential for hydropower generation in the short term. Climate change may also lead to sea level rise. Countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Japan, India, and China are the most at risk.

Solutions poised to the increasing water problems in Asia included: 1) Raising the profile of water security on the political and developmental agendas of national government. 2) Include water in security policy planning, but don’t want military to securitize water, but rather change governments to think of water in terms of their citizens livelihood. 3) Generate better policies through dialogue, including encouraging investment and increased collaboration in water management technologies. 4) Water should be included in early warning systems, the IPCC data on water and climate change data could be used for this. 5) Private sector has technical role, but must be careful with exploitation. 6) Utilize the role of water in promoting dialogue, while drawing on local knowledge. 7) Address emerging water problems through a post-2012 climate agreement. 8) Call on Asian Development Bank to expand their Water Financing Partnership, beyond the initially invested 20 million, with a focus on infrastructure and development of renewable energies. 9) Water issues are fragmented in the millennium development for example drinking water under environment, water as a role in infant mortality and women’s health, etc…, UNESCAP should be encouraged to have an integrated task force to meet 2015 targets. 10) Better water data is needed as government’s often lie and errant policy results, possible expansion of the GEMS system. 11) Water issues should again be made part of US’s policy towards the region.

During the Q&A sessions some interesting points were addressed. The first is that low-set water pricing in China may result in increased demand, and a reluctance to adopt new technologies to improve water quality. However, one should not conflate pricing with privatization, the later being a concern. Dr. Ali encouraged all taps including agricultural to be priced as a method for internalizing use of water. Second, on the issue of Chinese territoriality claims toward Tibet, while ethno-history should not be underemphasized, China’s claims may be strengthen in coming years as Tibet is a major source of China’s water and natural-mineral resources. Third, other multilateral treaties, particularly on trade could serve as a possible forum for water issues. Mismanagement of agriculture, particularly cotton and cash crops, is the cause of many water issues as 70 percent of fresh water usage is for agriculture. The lack of trust and imperative for food security further drive domestic dependence on agriculture. Finally, some water/energy solutions are counter intuitive. The goal to increase biofuels by four times current levels in the future energy mix, will further drive demand for water needed for production. Two-thirds of installed capacity of desalinization plants are in West Asia and the Gulf, but many plants are being built and encouraged off the coast of China. Ironically Chinese plants are being fed by coal instead of solar.